Alabama-Michigan Rose Bowl confidential: Keys to victory

The most interesting part of Alabama’s Rose Bowl matchup with Michigan is the juxtaposition of two coaches who are defiant in their beliefs.

The identities of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan team and Nick Saban’s Alabama team aren’t ambiguous. They are the heads of the two all-time winningest programs in the sport, and they remain on top by prioritizing crisp, efficient and mistake-free football.

Michigan has just five turnovers on the year, its 3.2 points per drive is No. 6 nationally, and it has the fewest plays that go for zero or negative yards outside of the service academies, per ESPN Stats & Info. The Wolverines also have committed the fourth fewest penalties in the country.

Michigan’s identity comes from its power run game, the dedication of which showed against Penn State when it famously ran 32 consecutive times against one of the nation’s top run defenses.

“Michigan forces you to be so patient and be so bored sometimes,” said an opposing coach. “That’s what they’re so good at. What they make you do is they make you feel like the game is way shorter. And then you make the game shorter because you rush. You maybe do things outside of what you

Saban rarely gets outside of himself on game day. And Alabama has another collection of mesmerizing stars on defense, starting with the country’s top pairing of cornerbacks — Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold — to go along with elite edge rusher Dallas Turner.

McKinstry has allowed just nine completions on 28 attempts this season and a lone touchdown, per ESPN Stats & Info. Arnold has been one of the SEC’s most improved players.

“I’ve never seen a team cover so well. They are Velcro,” said an opposing coach. “We couldn’t create separation on them. And their back end is what we really worried about. They are so sound, you aren’t going to get big ones.”

Could this be a sound-off, if you will? Two teams that pride themselves on the NFL ethos of solid play, eliminating mistakes and forcing the opponent out of what they do best.

Who will blink first? We asked a dozen head coaches and assistants about the keys to the game.

 

Will a recent Michigan strength be a weakness?

The ugly injury to Michigan All-American guard Zak Zinter in the Ohio State game — a broken tibia and fibula — could loom large.

Michigan’s offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the country’s best unit in both 2021 and 2022. The recalibrated version in 2023 has been generally good, but has shown cracks. Zinter was, by far, Michigan’s best offensive lineman, was named first-team All-American and projected as the line’s best NFL draft prospect, according to scouts.

Zinter’s departure may take some perceived vulnerabilities and magnify them. Penn State had one sack and one pressure against Michigan, as J.J. McCarthy had just eight pass attempts. Opposing coaches point to that game as a showcase of Michigan’s struggles in blocking the edge.

For the Big Ten title game against Iowa, Zinter’s injury moved tackle Karsen Barnhart inside to right guard, which left veteran Trente Jones as the starter at right tackle. One coach who watched that Iowa game summed it up this way: “The right side isn’t very good, and neither is the center.”

The revamped right side led to a dismal offensive performance against Iowa, which included 1.9 yards per carry and 66 total rushing yards. Iowa has one of the country’s top defenses, but the inertia planted seeds of concern.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, that’s the worst rushing performance by Michigan since the 2020 COVID-19 season when Michigan went 2-4. The total yards were the lowest since a loss to Wisconsin that year and the yards per carry the worst since losing to Indiana the same season.

“They’re not the same as they’ve been up front,” said one opposing coach. “They really struggled to block in the pass game, it’s a weakness. The run game is good to solid, but just not dominant like last year. That’s why their running numbers are down this year.

“Flip on the Penn State game. They couldn’t block [Chop Robinson or Adisa Isaac] and they knew it. That’s why they ran the ball, they’d risk turnovers if they dropped back and passed.”