Free-agent ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto may be closing on a decision, and a massive payday
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency is dominating MLB’s offseason, but it may be nearing a conclusion.
The 45-day window for Yamamoto to reach an agreement with a major league team remains open through Jan. 4. But the 25-year-old — who has won three straight Sawamura awards as the top NPB pitcher, and was 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 4 percent walk rate in 2023 — is accepting offers from interested teams, according to major league sources.
Yamamoto’s combination of age and talent could propel the bids for his services to historic levels. While members of the industry viewed a deal of $200 million as within reach at the start of the offseason, the allure of the righthander’s skill set and relative youth has raised the bar considerably. (He’s roughly four years younger than Gerrit Cole was when the Yankees signed the 2023 AL Cy Young winner to a $324 million deal.)
Expectations have risen to the point where a winning investment (in terms of his combined posting fee and salary guarantee) could run well over $300 million.
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Predictions are complicated given Yamamoto could pursue a wide variety of contract structures, from the seven- to eight-year deals typically garnered by aces in their primes, to deals of more than a decade, to ones with opt-outs. Opt-outs are further complicated by the posting fee to his current NPB club, Orix, which is calculated based on the deal’s guarantee.
For instance: If Yamamoto agrees to an eight-year, $260 million deal that includes an opt-out after three years, that equals a $40.775 million posting fee regardless of whether Yamamoto opts out. Assuming evenly distributed salaries, a team might pay $138.275 million for three seasons — three years at $32.5 million each, plus the fee.
Regardless of the structure, bidding for Yamamoto hovers over the rest of the pitching market. The Red Sox, who sent a contingent to Los Angeles for a face-to-face conversation last week, are one of several large-market teams that have met with the pitcher.
