Jaguars playoff picture: Jacksonville’s updated AFC South, wild-card chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs
Many expected the Jaguars to cruise to a second consecutive AFC South title this season. Through 12 weeks, that seemed to be the case, despite progress by both the Texans and Colts this season. Suddenly, though, Jacksonville finds itself in a precarious position.
Back-to-back losses, compounded by an ankle injury that has left QB Trevor Lawrence at less than 100 percent, have kept the door wide open for Houston and Indianapolis to threaten the Jaguars in the AFC South. With a crowded wild-card race also taking shape in the AFC, the Jaguars aren’t assured of a return to the playoffs if they can’t capture the division crown.
Thanks to that recent slide, Jacksonville faces a critical stretch of games over the final month of the season, beginning with a “Sunday Night Football” matchup against the AFC-leading the Ravens.
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Here’s an updated look at the Jaguars’ place in the playoff picture and what they might have to do to maintain their place atop the AFC South.
Jaguars playoff picture
With four weeks remaining, the Jaguars (8-5) are still in control of their fate. They lead both the Texans and Colts by a game in the AFC South, though they don’t face either team again.
Fortunately for Jacksonville, the tiebreakers also work in the franchise’s favor. In the scenario of a three-way tie, the Jaguars hold the tiebreaker thanks to a 3-1 record against the Colts and Texans. Jacksonville also has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts thanks to a season sweep of Indianapolis, and the Jaguars would also likely win the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans with a much better divisional record (4-1) than Houston (1-2).
However, a loss to the Ravens could certainly pose an issue for the Jaguars. There is less margin for error when you are relying on two teams to lose behind you, even with a tiebreaker advantage. Jacksonville was fortunate to see both Houston and Indianapolis lose in Week 14 and maintain its one-game lead.
After the matchup with Baltimore, though, the Jaguars face three consecutive teams that currently have a losing record.
The Jaguars are hoping to avoid any involvement in the AFC wild-card race, but they would not be assured of a spot if they do fall out of the AFC South lead. Six teams are currently tied for the final two spots at 7-6, so it’s possible it might take 10 wins and some tiebreaker help just to get a wild-card berth.
