5 for Friday: Valuing the football matters
Protecting the football matters.
The Steelers are tied for second in the NFL entering Week 10 in turnover ratio at plus-8. Perhaps more importantly, they’re tied for fourth in the league with the fewest giveaways with eight.
Coming into this season, the team that wins the turnover battle gets a victory 69.6 percent of the time. And that increases if you win the turnover margin by two (83.9 percent of the time) or three or more (90.7).
And if you consistently win the turnover battle over the course of a season, you invariably win more games. In 2022, none of the teams that finished the season in the top 15 in turnover ratio finished less than one game under .500. But just two of the teams that finished in the bottom 17 in turnover ratio had winning records.
That has certainly held true for the Steelers this season. They’re 5-1 when they win the turnover battle, with the only loss coming in Week 1 against the 49ers. So, obviously that is nothing new.
But one thing that doesn’t get considered into the play of quarterbacks as often is their overall protection of the football.
Everyone looks at interceptions because that is one statistic that is readily available. And even though quarterbacks aren’t always necessarily to blame for throwing an interception, they take the bulk of the blame because interceptions show up in their statistics.
Something that is rarely considered, however, are fumbles.
And that’s where Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has been excellent in his young career.
Through his first 21 career games, Pickett has fumbled five times. That might sound like a lot until you consider that 10 quarterbacks this season already have five or more fumbles, led by the 11 Josh Dobbs has had in nine games this season. Lamar Jackson is second with 10, while Tua Tagovailoa and Zach Wilson are third with eight each.
So, even though Jackson has thrown just three interceptions this season, he’s put the ball on the ground 10 times, with opponents recovering six of them. Those matter, too. And it was most certainly a factor in the Steelers’ 17-10 victory over the Ravens earlier this season, when Jackson threw an interception and also lost a fumble.
Pickett? He’s thrown four interceptions this season – just one since Week 2 and none in his past 124 pass attempts – and has fumbled once.
Ball security in the pocket is something the Steelers and quarterback coach Mike Sullivan have stressed.
“Absolutely. As we’re watching film, we’re always, ‘Two hands on the football,'” Steelers backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky said. “When you really get in trouble is when you have one hand on it and the ball gets away from you. It’s a big emphasis for coach Sullivan anytime we’re in the pocket. Especially with the rules changing how you’re able to hit quarterbacks with the roughing the passer rules, landing on quarterbacks and all of that, the emphasis is really on taking the ball away.
“Guys are going to try to take the ball away rather than hit you in the pocket because they don’t want to get fined or get a penalty. That’s where the ball security has become even bigger. We look at fumbles the same as interceptions. If the ball’s on the ground, you’re lucky if you recover it. You’ve got to be able to protect the football.”
There’s been a lot of emphasis on Pickett’s fourth-quarter statistics in his young career. And there’s obviously some merit to that. He’s got a 108.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter of games this season and has led six fourth-quarter comebacks and has seven game-winning drives in his first 20 career starts.
But that’s not by accident, either.
It seems so much of the emphasis on Pickett is that he doesn’t do this or doesn’t do that. But one thing he has consistently not done is put the ball in harm’s way early in games.
Of his 13 career interceptions, six have come in the fourth quarter when he’s trying to make a big play to win the game. And the majority of those came early last season when he was still feeling things out in the league.
“He does a great job of protecting the football. I think being in college for five years, having that experience and playing last year, and also you see it with our defense, we’re going to be in it until the end,” Trubisky said. “So, if you play smart and protect the football, we’re going to be in it in the fourth quarter. I think that’s what he sees and I think he does a great job of protecting the football and having two hands on it in the pocket and then making great decisions.”
The ability to be able to win games has been something that everyone has talked about early in Pickett’s career. But it’s also just as noteworthy that he doesn’t often lose them for the Steelers.
• Trubisky brings up a very legitimate point when it comes to defensive players and roughing the passer penalties.
After a decrease in those penalties in 2022, when just 93 were called in 284 total games, an average of .328 per game, we’ve already seen 64 roughing the passer penalties called in 136 games in 2023. That’s an average of .471 per game, a marked increase.
That still, however, pales in comparison to the number of roughing penalties called in 2021, when there were 154 called in 285 games, meaning there was one called in every .540 games.
Players aren’t hitting quarterbacks any more or less than they were a few years ago. And we’ve already seen some ridiculous plays called “roughing.” For example, Steelers safety Keanu Neal’s was penalized for a hit on Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence two weeks ago, but not fined by the league, meaning the NFL viewed it as a clean play.
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