Trades Rays must consider in 2024 MLB offseason
After a fruitful regular season did not result in playoff success, here are a few trades the Rays must consider this offseason
The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off another frustrating year in which a fruitful regular season did not translate to playoff success. The Rays won 99 games — one off the franchise record — and finished in the top five both in runs scored and runs allowed.
Still, their phenomenal regular season was not enough as Tampa Bay lost to the Texas Rangers in the AL Wild Card round.
After a fifth consecutive playoff appearance and a fourth 90-win season in the last five full campaigns, what will it take for the Rays to get over their playoff hump and finally win the World Series? Here are a few trades the club must consider in the offseason to get closer to that goal.
Trade infielder Isaac Paredes for White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease
Isaac Paredes had a breakout campaign for the Rays in 2023, leading the team with 31 home runs and 98 RBI. But his underlying stats suggest this was a considerable overperformance from the third baseman. Paredes had an expected batting average of .226 — 24 points below his actual average, and his expected slugging of .364 was well short of his actual slugging percentage of .488. He also ranked in the 13th in average exit velocity and the sixth percentile in hard-hit percentage. The Rays should be looking to sell high this offseason on their young infielder.
In Windy City, Dylan Cease — along with the Chicago White Sox — had a tough year. Cease had a 4.58 ERA, his worst since 2019, his walk rate was among the highest in the league, and he led MLB in wild pitches. But for the right-hander, his advanced stats indicate he is in for a bounce-back year. His expected ERA was .407 and he ranked in the 84th percentile in whiff rate and the 78% percentile in barrel rate.
The one challenge for Cease will be rediscovering his elite slider. Cease’s slider was worth an astounding 36 runs in 2022, making it the most valuable pitch in baseball by a long margin. This season, it was still effective (worth 10 runs), but with his other pitches being slightly less effective, his slider became a bit more hittable. If any team can fix that, it is the Rays — who are known around the league for rehabilitating pitchers.
Zach Eflin was the only Rays pitcher with more than 21 starts in 2023, and Dylan Cease provides much-needed consistency at a position where Tampa Bay has struggled to keep guys on the field. For the White Sox, a club expecting considerable turnover can use a young infielder like Isaac Paredes to build for the future.
Acquire Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal
With Shane McLanahan out for all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow — a free agent in 2025 with a pending $25 million salary — a possible trade candidate, the Rays have even more motivation to add to their starting pitching depth. Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal missed the last two months of 2022 and the first three months of 2023 but was phenomenal once he returned. The lefty posted a 2.80 ERA across 15 starts while striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings. The advanced stats loved him. Skubal led all starting pitchers in expected ERA, was 96th percentile in both strikeout and walk rate, plus was in the 94th percentile in barrel rate.
For the Rays, who they send here depends on the possible return they get for Glasnow. Tampa Bay has the 7th-ranked farm system in MLB, so the franchise has no shortage of talent — especially in the infield. All of the Rays’ top six prospects are infielders, and with so much depth at that position in the Majors, fringe MLB guys like Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero could end up in an offseason swap.
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