The Reds moving Elly De La Cruz to the outfield is a bad idea
The Cincinnati Reds, it seems, have assembled a hyper-flexible roster of position players. If we remove catcher from the equation (because that position is set and neither Tyler Stephenson or Luke Maile is likely to get significant time elsewhere), the Reds have 10 players lined up for the other eight hitting spots, and all of them, it seems, are now slated to have positional flexibility.
With a roster like that, it’s tempting to go a little nuts and imagine all kinds of interesting on-field alignments. For many, that’s included putting Elly De La Cruz in the outfield. That is a bad idea, and I will now explain why.
When deciding how to deploy a defensive lineup – the ideal is to maximize defensive value (we’ll talk about hitting in a minute). Now, I know that some people are really bothered by a few balls popping out of his glove, and while that does matter, we shouldn’t let it outweigh the positive scouting reports from the minors or the fact that he also has tremendous range and a tremendous arm, meaning he makes a lot more plays in general. Which is why he actually ranked as the second best fielder on the team last year according to Baseball Savant. Do you know who was first? TJ Friedl.
So, if we are maximizing defensive value and we already have the two best fielders on the team playing two premium defensive positions, it makes absolutely no sense to move either of them. It makes even less sense when one of them is 21-years-old and just had his first major league experience. Yes, I know, some of your are fantasizing about that arm in center or even right field. This is confirmation bias. Great throws from right field make highlight reels, but an arm in right matters much, much less than an arm on the left side of the infield because, frankly, right fielders are involved in far, far fewer plays than shortstops.
In fact, among all the Reds we’ll be discussing, the only ones who were truly bad in the field (according to the best numbers we have) were Jonathan India and Spencer Steer. Of course, everyone knows India is weak at second, and Steer can, perhaps, be cut a bit of slack as he clearly improved while learning about 17 different positions in the middle of his rookie season in the major leagues.
Now, when looking at defense, there are four places where you want a player who can genuinely defend (we’re still ignoring catcher): shortstop, second base, third base, and center field. You can hide a bat at first base, left field, right field, and (obviously) the designated hitter.
Now given what we know about the Reds and who is currently available, the best possibly DEFENSIVE ALIGNMENT is probably this:
- 1B – Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- 2B – Matt McLain
- SS – Elly De La Cruz
- 3B – Jeimer Candelario
- LF – Will Benson
- CF – TJ Friedl
- RF – Jake Fraley
We can make an argument that, once he gets reps, Spencer Steer will be as good as anyone else in left field, and his bat certainly is one you want to find room for. And we can also take all the platoon noises and so forth.
That leaves Noelvi Marte and Jonathan India. Marte had a great start to his MLB career, but the jury has to be out on him until we see a bit more, and India well, it depends on what you think of his bat. It also probably depends on what you think of the bat of Elly De La Cruz.
I have no idea how well last year’s rookie class will hit. And neither do you. If you want to argue with me, I invite you to look at how the most recent Red to win ROY has hit the last two seasons. We are dealing with small samples and a lot of this is guess work. But defensively, there is no case for moving De La Cruz and no case for playing India in a premium defensive spot if he is on the roster.
My thesis then, is that if Elly De La Cruz is on the team, he starts at short. If he isn’t starting at short in Cincinnati, it’s because he needs to work on his hitting in Louisville. There is certainly a case to be made there. But – again – I DON’T KNOW about his bat. He may come to spring training having figured it out. We have to be patient
I do know that moving him makes absolutely zero sense. Cincinnati has a lot of positional flexibility, and that will come in useful for matchups and pinch hitting and days off and so forth, but presuming the 10 guys we’ve been talking about are going to play, here they are again with a list of the positions at which they should get the most time based on the defensive strengths of their teammates:
- Elly De La Cruz – SS, occasional 3B
- Matt McLain – 2B, occasional SS
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 1B/DH
- Jeimer Candelario – 3B/1B, occasional DH
- Jonathan India – DH, occasional 2B, 1B, and LF
- Noelvi Marte – 3B, occasional DH, maybe occasional SS.
- Spencer Steer – LF, occasional 1B, 2B, 3B
- TJ Friedl – CF
- Will Benson – RF/LF, some DH
- Jake Fraley – RF/LF, some DH
Sure, injuries will happen. Sure, things will get mixed up late in games sometimes. But, at the start of games, with everyone available, there is no reason to substantially diverge from what’s outlined above, and putting Elly De La Cruz in the outfield is a non-starter. Friedl is already a good center fielder and a great arm comes up way more often at short or third than it does in right field.
