First, though, bear a few caveats in mind.

I only project things that strike me as realistic, so no “Ohtani to the D-backs!” (The off season is not fantasy baseball.)

My thinking is influenced by a few factors.

Mike Hazen has been clear that the D-backs will add at least one starting pitcher and perhaps two. As he told Jack Sommers during last week’s general managers meetings, “We need pitching . . . so we’re going to be involved aggressively, hopefully in both the trade and free agent market.” He also said, “I would prefer to have someone we can bank on” though he did not rule out a pitcher on a bounce-back contract.

In addition, owner Ken Kendrick has said that 2023 was a profitable season for the franchise, and he intends to put that money back into the team. I take this to mean that they will spend money — probably not Ohtani or Yamamoto or Snell money, but they’ll be spending.

(No one seems to get that a starting pitcher may have affected the D-backs’ ability to win the World Series. Trust me: They’re going to be willing to spend.)

Consider, too, Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo have spoken at length about the culture of the D-backs’ clubhouse. That’s not something that’s measurable by someone outside the organization, but when the D-backs look at free agents that will be much in their mind. (So, probably no Trevor Bauer.)

I expect the D-backs to spend, but I think they’ll put more money on a shorter contract. This is a young team with its window of contention opening. The last thing Hazen will do is mortgage the future on one starting pitcher. (So if Jordan Montgomery gets six years, $150 dollars, that will probably rule him out.)

Probably, the D-backs will trade for another starter. Michael McDermott has written about possible trade candidates. He considers Paul Blackburn, Corbin Burnes, Patrick Sandoval, Marco Gonzalez, Joey Lucchesi, Dylan Cease, and Shane Bieber as possible targets. That seems to me like a good list, and the D-backs have the farm system to make this kind of trade.

The pitcher will have to pass muster with the D-backs’ “pitcher whisperer,” Brent Strom, who has indicated he’ll coach for at least one more season.

And there’s one last thing: Arizona will be an attractive destination for free agents. There’s no need to move the family to a Spring Training location followed by a home for the season, and Phoenix has nice winters close to the D-backs’ training staff. Now that the D-backs have shown they’re contenders, they will have interested, high-profile free agents.

So with these caveats in mind, I culled my list using the numbers projected at MLB Trade Rumors.

I eliminated pitchers who do not have a record at Chase Field, so that removed international pitchers (although it’s certainly possible the D-backs will sign one) as well as Eduardo Rodriguez and Lucas Giolito. I also left off any pitchers with a very bad Chase Field track record: Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Kenta Maeda. That doesn’t mean the D-backs won’t be interested in these players — they might! But it provides some focus for what could otherwise be a sizeable list.

That left me with the following list of free agents that might be a fit for the D-backs.

RHP Aaron Nola, 30

We begin with the pie in the sky free agent target for the Arizona Diamondbacks. One they just got more familiar with in the NLCS one month ago.