2023-24 MLB free agency and trade grades: Hader to Astros, Hicks to Giants, more
The 2023-24 MLB offseason has begun, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a nine-figure free agent deal that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade that has all of baseball buzzing, we’ll weigh in with what it all means, for next season and beyond.
Follow along as our experts evaluate each move. This article will continue to be updated, so check back in for the freshest analysis from the beginning of the hot stove season through the start of spring training.
Astros land market’s best closer in Hader
The deal: Five years, $95 million (deal reportedly contains a full no-trade clause and no option seasons)
Grade: B
The Houston Astros paid handsomely to fix a position group that wasn’t particularly broken. In Josh Hader, they’ve certainly landed one of the premier relievers in baseball, an unquestioned close-out pitcher who you can easily envision recording the last out of a World Series win. There are a few other teams that needed such a presence — the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, maybe even the Los Angeles Dodgers — but that is not really of concern to Houston.
What is of concern in the short term for the Astros is that Hader deepens the back of a bullpen that is now, once again, four closer-quality relievers deep. Hader joins incumbent closer Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero and the filthy Bryan Abreu. In terms of collective, raw stuff, this is a vicious group that recalls past power pens like the Cincinnati Reds’ “Nasty Boys” and some of the recent New York Yankees’ relief staffs.
It’s a full circle signing: Hader is a one-time Astros prospect who was dealt away before he reached the majors. He was in fact dealt to Milwaukee in a trade that brought back pitcher Mike Fiers, who ended up becoming the whistleblower in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Small world.
Did Houston need a new closer? Pressly’s traditional numbers were down last season, though the metrics behind his arsenal look stable. In the playoffs, Pressly threw six scoreless innings. But he’s down to the last guaranteed season on his deal, with a mutual option on the table after 2024. A right-now closer didn’t seem like the most glaring need on the talented Astros but in Hader, they have one of the best. And Houston is now set after 2024, regardless of what happens with Pressly.
The signing comes on the heels of news that reliever Kendall Graveman will miss the 2024 season after undergoing surgery, but this doesn’t feel like a cause-and-effect situation, if only because Graveman is nowhere near Hader’s class in terms of consistent dominance. You don’t commit $95 million to replace Kendall Graveman.
Five years is a long contract for a relief pitcher, even a great one. And Hader has been great during his career more often than not. He was as good as ever last season, when he posted a 1.28 ERA — and in terms of Statcast’s expected ERA, only the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal had a better mark among hurlers with more than 100 balls in play.
Yet, for closers in the non-Mariano Rivera class — and he’s a class of one — the decline can be hard and fast. Craig Kimbrel had a 1.80 career ERA through age 29. (Hader is at 2.50 through the same age.) He seemed infallible, one of the few sure things among short relievers. While Kimbrel has remained a viable high-leverage reliever, he has been up and down since that early dominance, bouncing from team to team and in and out of the closer role. Kenley Jansen’s story has been similar, with his lapse in dominance coming a year after he signed one of those rare five-year reliever deals.
The Astros are paying Hader to be one of the best two or three closers in baseball for the next five years. He stands a good chance of being that this season. Next season? It’d be hard to bet against him. After that? It’s anybody’s guess. There’s nothing on Hader’s dossier to raise doubt, except for one thing: He’s a soon-to-be-30-year-old relief pitcher and five years is a long time to be paying out that much money to someone like that.
Those are perhaps worries for another day. The Astros are aging in some key areas, with both Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander all possible free agents after the coming season. For now, the focus in Houston is entirely on 2024 — and there is no doubt that Hader boosts their chances to advance deep into the postseason yet again.
If the Astros win the 2024 World Series, with Hader blowing away someone with a last-strike four-seamer, no one in Houston will be wringing their hands about two or three future seasons of an underwater contract. — Bradford Doolittle
