The early Orioles results against LHP have not been good
This week exposed some holes in a few swings, at least for now.
Spring training came almost too easy to this Orioles team, and then came the regular season and a buzzsaw of tough lefties. Or at least… some lefties.
Thus far, early in the season the Orioles offense has run hot and cold. After scoring 24 runs over its first two games, Baltimore drove in just 12 over the next four. That included five runs against an ineffective Patrick Sandoval for Los Angeles on Opening Day, but just one run against Angels lefty Reid Detmers and none against Kansas City’s Cole Ragans. Not that this stopped them from a thrilling walkoff win last night.
Does this team have a problem hitting lefties? Well, in a small six-game sample size, the numbers are not good.
Against right handers they’re quite competent thus far: .246/.292/.460 with a .762 OPS. Yet against southpaws, the team has a .206/.309/.279 slashline and a puny .588 OPS in the same time.
Is this systemic or temporary? Let’s consider the stats and some possible explanations.
The law of small sample sizes
We’re about 4% of the way through the season. Trends that seem massive over a weekend are, over a 162-game stretch, but tiny ripples. Last year, everyone was writing the Tampa Bay Rays’ ticket to the World Series after their 13-0 start and, well, it turned out that some other team won the AL East crown.
Anyway, for now, the Orioles have seen three righty starters to three lefties; 16 righties total to six lefties when you count relievers. Though it’s certainly a small sample, it has been pretty lefty-heavy from the get-go.
But there’s no reason to think this is happening on purpose. The 2023 Orioles had no problems hitting southpaws last year. Here are the team batting splits against righties and lefties over the 2023 season.
Orioles 2023 Batting Splits – Handedness
As you can see, the team in fact hit lefties slightly better than they did righties. True, they didn’t excel in lefty-on-lefty situations, but note how infrequently the top brass allowed those to happen. Only Gunnar and sometimes Cedric Mullins (who missed stretches of last season due to injury) took consistent at-bats against southpaws from the left side.
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Turning to 2024, this is essentially the same team as last season, save for the departures of Adam Frazier and Aaron Hicks, neither a lefty-killer. Colton Cowser (and Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad when they’re eventually called up) can and will do better in these situations.
These particular lefty pitchers are particularly good
Here it’s a little mixed, but I think you can say overall, yes, especially vis-à-vis the three lefty starters.
Patrick Sandoval is not going to be on the Cy Young Award shortlist this year, but with a 3.68 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 463 career innings, he’s not a slouch, either. He was locating the ball fairly well in his Opening Day start, but the Birds were beating him with good approaches.
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As for Reid Detmers, the 24-year-old is deceptively good, ranking in the top 72nd percentile in strikeout percentage last season and 89th in breaking run value. His fastball, which averaged 94.4 mph on Sunday, has improved to a plus-value pitch, and he located it well against the Orioles. As for Cole Ragans, he’s got ridiculous peripherals and O’s manager Brandon Hyde referred to him as a “big-time No. 1-type arm.”
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