Breaking News: As per ESPN, NHL has suspended two of the veteran goalies for the Colorado Avalanche  for three months because of something foreign found in one of their gloves.

We’re just over 70 days from the one-for-one trade of Casey Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram between the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche. One player, Mittelstadt, is still alive in the Stanley Cup Playoffs while the other, Byram, has failed to reach the NHL postseason. Byram is now competing in the World Championships for Team Canada at a point-per-game pace.

Mittelstadt scored on a key third-period go-ahead goal for the Avs on Wednesday on an opportunistic bounce. So Colorado is winning the trade, right?

Avalanche POV

The Avalanche are thrilled with the offensive upgrade Mittelstadt has been in the second-line center role. Ryan Johansen was acquired in the offseason to fill the spot and was a major letdown and shipped away. Ross Colton was another offseason acquisition at center and has been good, but is better suited for the third line.

In his 18 regular season games for the Avalanche, Mittelstadt recorded four goals and six assists. The 0.56 point-per-game pace was less than the 0.76 recorded in his 62 games with the Sabres. The postseason tells a different tale, as Mittelstadt has nine points in 10 playoff games. Altogether, that’s a 0.68 point-per-game pace with Colorado.

WAR

The WAR metrics – wins above replacement – also took a tumble once Mittelstadt got to Colorado. According to Evolving-Hockey, he added 2.3 wins more than a replacement-level player to the Buffalo Sabres. Contrast that to his regular season play with the Avalanche, where he was barely above replacement level at 0.1 wins added.

This isn’t only due to the drop in production, but also the negative marks on the defensive end and the powerplay in Colorado. Mittelstadt’s time with the man advantage is nearly non-existent thanks to the heavy minutes Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen demand.

Relative Statistics

The relative-to-teammate stats show that, when Mittelstadt is on the ice, the Avalanche are generating more shot attempts. However, he’s hurting his teammates’ shots on net percentage, shot quality percentage, and goals scored for and against. It was the opposite case in Buffalo, suggesting that Mittelstadt may not be the best fit.

An adjustment period could be warranted, but Mittelstadt’s underlying statistics with the Avalanche are alarming. Colorado fans may be satisfied with the production. However, it’s a low bar to clear due to the vacancy they’ve had at the position since the departures of Nazem Kadri, J.T. Compher, and Alex Newhook.

Sabres POV

Bowen Byram exploded onto the scene in Buffalo, with five points in his first four games with the Sabres. He managed only one point over the next 11 games before finishing strong with a point in each of his last three. His half-point-per-game pace was better overall than in Colorado, where he had 20 points in 55 games.

WAR

The WAR metrics are great for Byram all the way around, with negative impacts on defense and the powerplay hindering the positive even-strength offense he brings. His decline in Buffalo wasn’t nearly as drastic as Mittelstadt’s with the Avalanche, so the gaps in his game can’t be attributed as much to a new dynamic.