Which young player should the Reds sign to an extension?
This morning the Detroit Tigers signed Colt Keith to an extension through the 2029 seasons, and hold team options for 2030, 2031, and 2032. If you are scratching your head right now and asking yourself who Colt Keith is, don’t beat yourself up. He’s never played in the big leagues. Baseball America just ranked him as the 28th best prospect in baseball after ht split his season in Double-A and Triple-A in 2023, hitting .306/.380/.552 with 38 doubles, 3 triples, and 27 home runs while playing third base as a 21-year-old.
The Cincinnati Reds have just one player under the age of 25 locked up long term – Hunter Greene. Of course, they also have 80% of the roster under team control for the next 4-6 seasons before any of them would reach free agency. That puts them in a position where they don’t necessarily have to extend anyone to keep them around for quite a while.
While the Reds don’t have an exact carbon copy of the profile for Cole Keith, they’ve got something close. Noelvi Marte has some big league experience, but like Keith he was a 21-year-old infielder who saw time in Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 and he’s rated as the #23 prospect in Baseball America’s just released Top 100. Marte didn’t hit as well as Keith did in 2023 in the minors, but he also got to the big leagues and more than held his own – posting an OPS of .822.
Of course if we expand things just a tiny bit beyond Noelvi Marte and guys who are still considered prospects (anyone who is eligible for the 2024 Rookie of the Year award is a “prospect” by definition), there are tons of other options Cincinnati would look at extending.
You’ve got the ultimate high ceiling guy in Elly De La Cruz. There’s the slightly overlooked, but consistently good Matt McLain. There is the other slightly overlooked, but consistently good Spencer Steer. Slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Breakout Will Benson. And then you can look at some pitchers, who do carry more risk because of injuries, but Andrew Abbott probably leads the way on that side of things as he’s coming off of a strong rookie campaign.
Things have to make sense for both the player and the club. The team is trying to save money in the long run, while the player knows they could be giving up some money in the long run but they also tend to make a little more money
early on than if they stayed under the arbitration scenario. There are risks for both sides in these deals – sometimes the player will dramatically outproduce their salary – we’re looking at you Ozzie Albies. But sometimes the player just doesn’t work out – we’re unfortunately looking at you Scott Kingery.
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