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Flyers Should Have Traded Scott Laughton Instead of Kevin Hayes
Back in the 2023 offseason, the Philadelphia Flyers were fairly busy. They made it their mission to sell off a few veterans to try and create a younger roster. In doing so, they largely succeeded – they went from a 31-38-13 record in a mostly uncompetitive 2022-23 campaign to just barely missing the playoffs after losing their last game of the season in 2023-24.
However, the Flyers had a choice between trading 29-year-old center Scott Laughton or 31-year-old center Kevin Hayes to the St. Louis Blues – they reportedly made offers for both. In the end, the Flyers chose to send off the latter. While the trade was seemingly a success for the Flyers–albeit a minor one–it appears as though they traded the wrong player.
The Flyers’ Trade & One That Never Was
With the Flyers in rebuild mode, they shipped off Hayes to the Blues to free some cap space and also get a bit younger on offense. Hayes, who had 54 points for Philadelphia in 2022-23, only returned a 2024 sixth-round pick in the deal. The real sacrifice came with the Flyers having to eat half of his salary, making it so they owe him $3.57 million every season through 2025-26.
Interestingly enough, the Blues were reportedly after Laughton just days prior to their deal for Hayes. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported, “I’m told that the Flyers have been engaged with the Blues among other teams on [Laughton]. Doug Armstrong had Laughton at the Worlds and really liked him. And I know that the Blues put on the table one of their late first-round picks [either 25th or 29th overall], and I’m told also offered a second-round pick,” he said just before the 2023 NHL draft commenced.
Making both of these deals wasn’t a possibility, as the Blues wouldn’t have been able to afford Laughton’s $3 million contract on top of Hayes’. If Seravalli’s reporting was accurate, the Flyers declined a premium just to keep one veteran forward but trade the other. Looking at the numbers and what was on the table, that was an egregious thing to do.
Laughton vs. Hayes: The Numbers
For starters, the Flyers didn’t really benefit salary-wise as they are paying the two a combined $6.57 million because of the retention situation. If they were to have traded Laughton with no salary retention and kept Hayes, Philadelphia would only be paying Hayes $7.14 million and nothing to Laughton for a net loss of $0.57 million. The cap situation is a non-factor here.
What is really intriguing is comparing the numbers between Laughton and Hayes. Over their last three seasons, they have been eerily similar on this front. In expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), expected goals percentage (xGF%), average time on ice (ATOI), and points per 60 (P/60), how do the two compare?
In terms of even-strength xGA/60, the two were almost identical. Since 2021-22, Hayes sits at 3.09 versus Laughton’s 3.08. These are two pretty dreadful marks that rank in the 20th and 21st percentiles among all 820 NHL forwards over the last three seasons. Neither of them made up for it with their xGF%, sitting at 46.3 percent and 46.2 percent respectively. The two have almost identical on-ice stats, which shows that they aren’t too different from one another.
Hayes had an even-strength ATOI of 13:53 to 13:38 for Laughton, so their level of competition didn’t have too much of an impact. They were both poor against mediocre-at-best competition.
The real difference between the two comes in their scoring, and it’s a place where Hayes has the advantage. He had an average P/60 of 2.00, while Laughton ended up with 1.76. It’s not significant, but the difference between the 72nd percentile and the 61st is worth noting.
Based on the stats alone, it looks like Hayes has the upper hand. It isn’t concrete as to who the better player is, but the numbers aren’t exactly in Laughton’s favor. Neither the offense, defense, or even the eye test do him justice.
Laughton vs. Hayes: The Locker-Room Factor
One of the big reasons why Laughton is so valued by the Flyers and Hayes wasn’t is due to their impact in the locker room. This is exemplified by Laughton being the first recipient of the Flyers’ Alumni Community Leadership Award in 2023-24. He has a well-known reputation for his support of the LGBTQ+ community and is one of the team’s alternate captains.
