CONFIRMED DEAL: As reported by ESPN this evening, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Philadelphia Flyers have formally reached an agreement to trade a top experienced goalie for….

The Flyers’ Trade & One That Never Was

With the Flyers in rebuild mode, they shipped off Hayes to the Blues to free some cap space and also get a bit younger on offense. Hayes, who had 54 points for Philadelphia in 2022-23, only returned a 2024 sixth-round pick in the deal. The real sacrifice came with the Flyers having to eat half of his salary, making it so they owe him $3.57 million every season through 2025-26.

Interestingly enough, the Blues were reportedly after Laughton just days prior to their deal for Hayes. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported, “I’m told that the Flyers have been engaged with the Blues among other teams on [Laughton]. Doug Armstrong had Laughton at the Worlds and really liked him. And I know that the Blues put on the table one of their late first-round picks [either 25th or 29th overall], and I’m told also offered a second-round pick,” he said just before the 2023 NHL draft commenced.

Making both of these deals wasn’t a possibility, as the Blues wouldn’t have been able to afford Laughton’s $3 million contract on top of Hayes’. If Seravalli’s reporting was accurate, the Flyers declined a premium just to keep one veteran forward but trade the other. Looking at the numbers and what was on the table, that was an egregious thing to do.

Laughton vs. Hayes: The Numbers

For starters, the Flyers didn’t really benefit salary-wise as they are paying the two a combined $6.57 million because of the retention situation. If they were to have traded Laughton with no salary retention and kept Hayes, Philadelphia would only be paying Hayes $7.14 million and nothing to Laughton for a net loss of $0.57 million. The cap situation is a non-factor here.

What is really intriguing is comparing the numbers between Laughton and Hayes. Over their last three seasons, they have been eerily similar on this front. In expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), expected goals percentage (xGF%), average time on ice (ATOI), and points per 60 (P/60), how do the two compare?

In terms of even-strength xGA/60, the two were almost identical. Since 2021-22, Hayes sits at 3.09 versus Laughton’s 3.08. These are two pretty dreadful marks that rank in the 20th and 21st percentiles among all 820 NHL forwards over the last three seasons. Neither of them made up for it with their xGF%, sitting at 46.3 percent and 46.2 percent respectively. The two have almost identical on-ice stats, which shows that they aren’t too different from one another.

Hayes had an even-strength ATOI of 13:53 to 13:38 for Laughton, so their level of competition didn’t have too much of an impact. They were both poor against mediocre-at-best competition.

The real difference between the two comes in their scoring, and it’s a place where Hayes has the advantage. He had an average P/60 of 2.00, while Laughton ended up with 1.76. It’s not significant, but the difference between the 72nd percentile and the 61st is worth noting.

Based on the stats alone, it looks like Hayes has the upper hand. It isn’t concrete as to who the better player is, but the numbers aren’t exactly in Laughton’s favor. Neither the offense, defense, or even the eye test do him justice.

Laughton vs. Hayes: The Locker-Room Factor

One of the big reasons why Laughton is so valued by the Flyers and Hayes wasn’t is due to their impact in the locker room. This is exemplified by Laughton being the first recipient of the Flyers’ Alumni Community Leadership Award in 2023-24. He has a well-known reputation for his support of the LGBTQ+ community and is one of the team’s alternate captains.