NFL playoff mythbusters: Why you’re wrong about all 14 teams
By the time we get to this point in the NFL season, you think you know what you need to know about the 14 playoff teams. After all, we’ve seen each of them play 17 games while weathering injuries, quarterback changes, losing streaks, winning streaks, etc. So we feel pretty confident we know these teams … but do we really?
The other things that harden over a 17-game season are incorrect assumptions. If a team develops a reputation, it can stick, even as evidence sneakily piles up in the background to dispute those claims. Add in the fact that a decent chunk of the audience is watching a lot more closely this time of year and might not have been paying attention to the trends and tendencies we track weekly throughout the NFL season, and you get some myths that need busting.
So each season on the eve of the NFL playoffs — with some help from my friend and esteemed ESPN researcher Paul “Hembo” Hembekides — I like to try to bust some of the myths you might have tricked yourself into believing about the playoff field. Here is one for each of the 14 postseason teams.
1. San Francisco 49ers
The myth: Brock Purdy’s numbers are inflated by the Niners’ run-after-catch ability
Because of the reputation that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has for making quarterbacks look good, anyone who plays QB for the 49ers would be at risk of being labeled a “system quarterback.” Purdy is surrounded by supremely talented players such as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. And the Niners were No. 1 in the league this season in yards after the catch (6.5 per reception).
Add in the fact that Purdy was quite famously the last pick in the 2022 draft, which suggests he had quite a few doubters coming into the league, and there’s a narrative around Purdy’s success that says anyone in his position could be doing the same thing.
Why it’s a myth: Yes, the 49ers have great run-after-catch ability. And yes, Shanahan does a great job of scheming up plays that maximize it. But Purdy’s not considerably more reliant on that than other quarterbacks. The 49ers are sixth in the league in receiving yards (4,577) and fourth in yards after the catch (2,189). To translate, they get 47.8% of their receiving yards after the catch. For comparison’s sake, the Chiefs get 61.1% of their receiving yards after the catch. Is Patrick Mahomes a system quarterback?
QBR is a stat that directly measures a quarterback’s contribution to plays that help the team win, and Purdy’s 72.8 was the highest in the NFL this season. He also ranked seventh in air yards per pass attempt at 8.0. He might be well-suited for Shanahan’s offense, but to call Purdy a system quarterback underrates what he has accomplished.
