MLB strikeout props for 6/20: Want a smart play? We go with Lugo
We’ve been teetering around .500 in strikeout props all week, so it’s time to break away from the mediocrity and get firmly in the green. Let’s do just that with a three-pack of K props for Thursday’s MLB sl
Any left-hander with a pulse could go over their strikeout prop against the Seattle Mariners right now. Over their last 115 plate appearances against lefties, the Mariners have a league-worst 35.7 percent strikeout rate and a .147 batting average. Allen ranks below the 30th percentile in every
swing-and-miss metric, but that’s why this line is set at only 4.5. In his lone start against Seattle earlier this season, Allen finished with six strikeouts and didn’t give up a single run.
Chris Flexen under 3.5 Ks (+108 FD)
Astros at White Sox, 2:10 p.m. ET
Another strikeout prop under in a game involving the Houston Astros? Shocking, we know. The Astros have just a 15.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handers over the last week. In 79 combined plate appearances against Flexen, current Astros hitters have an 8.9 percent K rate and a .396 xwOBA. Flexen simply doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff to combat this lineup. Houston has the highest zone contact rate (86.2 percent) in the league, so Flexen will need to be flawless in pitching around these hitters and forcing chases out of the zone to clear this line. We’ll bet against that.
Seth Lugo 7+ strikeouts (+130 FD)
Royals at Athletics, 3:37 p.m. ET
The Oakland Athletics can’t stop striking out against right-handed pitching. Oakland has the highest strikeout rate against righties in MLB since the start of June (26.8 percent), and it’s batting just .212 with a .611 OPS against righties in that span. Like Allen, Lugo isn’t an elite strikeout artist,
but he can rack up a ton of Ks in the right matchups. The Kansas City Royals righty has a career 35.9 percent K rate against current Athletics hitters, and he struck out 10 A’s in a matchup earlier this season.
