Just to let you know, running back Aaron Jones  of the Minnesota Vikings is reportedly asking for more playing time after agreeing to a $65.4 million, four-year deal with the Chicago Bears. This is according to reports from ESPN and multiple sources this evening. However…

Vikings’ NFC North Rival Oppo Research: Chicago Bears

I conclude my series on the Minnesota Vikings division rivals with a closer look at the Chicago Bears.

Recap of the Bears’ 2023 Season

If running the ball well and stopping the run were what mattered the most in the NFL, the Bears would’ve been a good team last year. They ran it the second-most offensively, with the sixth-best yards per attempt, and allowed the fewest rushing yards and 5th lowest yards per carry defensively. But the NFL is a passing league and the Bears struggled offensively and defensively when the ball was in the air. They were near the bottom of the league in passing yards and passing yards allowed, and in yards per attempt and yards per attempt allowed. The one positive is they led the league in interceptions with 22 on the season.

Overall, the Bears ranked 18th in points and 20th in yards offensively, and 20th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed defensively. They also ranked 31st in the red zone defensively, which explains the differential between points and yards allowed. They also ranked 29th in 3rd down conversions allowed but were 5th in takeaways.

In DVOA terms, the Bears finished 22nd in total DVOA at -7.1%. Offensively, they ranked 22nd at -6.5% and 17th defensively at +0.8%. Those stats suggest a slightly below average team overall and that was reflected in their 7-10 season record.

In terms of luck factors, the Bears were moderately unlucky, with a -54.6% net win probability added. They also ranked 9th in adjusted games lost due to injury, which is relatively fortunate in that regard, with just 50.5 AGLs last season.

As a baseline for the 2024 season, the Bears offensive in 2023 can be thrown out given the changes in personnel and coaching, but defensively 2023 remains a good baseline for the 2024 season.

Coaching Changes

The Bears moved on from Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator, replacing him with Shane Waldron. He was previously offensive coordinator for the Seahawks for three seasons and before that passing game coordinator for the Rams under Sean McVay. As such, Waldron runs a new-school West Coast offense with plenty of pre-snap motion and some newer concepts. But expect the Bears to be as pass-heavy as they’ve ever been, given the personnel changes since last season.

The Bears also changed defensive coordinators, replacing Alan Williams with Eric Washington. He was previously defensive line coach for the Bills for several years and spent many years as the Panthers defensive line coach before being promoted to defensive coordinator for his last two seasons in Carolina. I wouldn’t expect much change defensively for the Bears, however, as head coach Matt Eberflus is the de facto defensive coordinator and will continue to call the defensive plays this season.