Corbin Burnes could sign with an unexpected enemy if the other shoe drops
The Baltimore Orioles’ offseason trade for Corbin Burnes was impossible not to appreciate in the moment. After years of shortchanging fans and undercutting success with a desperate cheapness, the O’s — under the forthcoming guidance of new ownership — finally pushed their chips in, acquiring one of the game’s absolute best players at a position of need.
Burnes has been exactly as advertised for Baltimore. He started the All-Star Game for the American League. He’s 12-6 through 26 starts with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Concerns persist about the state of Baltimore’s bullpen, but Burnes is a much-needed anchor atop the rotation. He is somebody the O’s know can perform in the playoffs.
On track for his fifth straight top-10 finish in Cy Young voting, Burnes ought to drum up quite a market when he hits free agency in the winter. Baltimore should be at the front of the line, but with such competitive pricing for top pitchers, even new Orioles ownership could be scared off by Burnes’ eventual demands.
Not long ago, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal proclaimed that Burnes is “not coming back” next season. The O’s still have time and hopefully the resources to change that narrative, but if Burnes’ Baltimore tenure is indeed one-and-done, there are certain outcomes that are more preferrable to the O’s fandom.
Unfortunately, the buzz lately has revolved almost exclusively around Burnes’ potential to remain in the division. We’ve seen him connected to Boston, and now ESPN’s Jeff Passan is floating an even more dire possibility — the New York Yankees.
Well, for starters, the Yankees tend to have cash at their disposal. Hal Steinbrenner certainly isn’t the most aggressive owner in the sport, but when it matters, the Yankees tend to come through. Gerrit Cole — nine years, $324 million — owned the largest contract in pitching history until Yoshinobu Yamamoto came along.
It’s therefore fitting that a Burnes contract in New York would probably be contingent upon Cole’s free agent status. The Yankees’ top ace has the option to opt out of the four years and $144 million left on his deal. The expectation is that he will, according to ESPN. The Yanks have an ace up their sleeve, though.
“Back from an elbow injury and pitching well,” writes Passan, “Cole also figures into this winter’s free agency with a strong expectation that he will opt out of the final four years and $144 million of his nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees. But any fear that Cole will find greater riches elsewhere can be allayed simply: If he chooses to opt out, the Yankees can nullify it by adding a 10th year at $36 million onto his original deal.”
In short, the Yankees can add a 10th year to Cole’s contract to nullify any opt-out or free agent bid. The question is, does New York want to commit $36 million to Cole in his age-38 season? It’s probably worth it relative to a complete departure, but the equation takes on new depth if a potential run at Burnes is factored in.
Cole spent a large chunk of this season rehabbing from a nagging elbow injury. Burnes is four years younger and among the most durable aces in the sport, but he will probably require another 4-5 years of guaranteed money on his next contract. It’s a fascinating hypothetical to ponder.
Of course, the Yankees love Cole, and will surely do whatever is necessary to keep him in the clubhouse. If the Yankees want to add Burnes and Cole, great. The best front offices are often the most liquid. If signing Burnes is contingent upon Cole leaving, though, we can probably, tentatively rule out New York
