The Minnesota Wild Are In Danger Of Finishing In the Mushy Middle
Good news for those who went to bed after the Minnesota Wild took a 2-0 win over the Anaheim Ducks last night: The Vegas Golden Knights dropped their game against the Calgary Flames. Getting two points, with zero for Vegas, means that Minnesota climbs within four points of the second Wild Card spot. Even better, they also have an opportunity to pick off the Los Angeles Kings, who are also at 77 points to the Wild’s 73.
But, of course, there is no unqualified good news for Minnesota this season. When Evolving-Hockey’s playoff odds took last night’s action into account, the Wild’s playoff odds were at just 22.8%. Vegas and LA have one and two games in hand, which is part of the overwhelming odds in favor of the two Pacific Division teams. So is the fact that these teams are almost out of time. Minnesota has to make up a four-point gap in only 15 games.
The Wild have surged with a 12-4-2 record since the All-Star Break. It’s been exciting, with the President’s Day thriller against the Vancouver Canucks and this week’s overtime goalie pull against Nashville being highlights. But where has it gotten them?
If things stand where they are today: Sadness. HockeyViz’ Micah Blake McCurdy used to post his “Sadness” rankings, which were the odds a team would miss the playoffs and pick outside the top five in the NHL Draft.
Here’s an example from January of last season:
Good news for those who went to bed after the Minnesota Wild took a 2-0 win over the Anaheim Ducks last night: The Vegas Golden Knights dropped their game against the Calgary Flames. Getting two points, with zero for Vegas, means that Minnesota climbs within four points of the second Wild Card spot. Even better, they also have an opportunity to pick off the Los Angeles Kings, who are also at 77 points to the Wild’s 73.
But, of course, there is no unqualified good news for Minnesota this season. When Evolving-Hockey’s playoff odds took last night’s action into account, the Wild’s playoff odds were at just 22.8%. Vegas and LA have one and two games in hand, which is part of the overwhelming odds in favor of the two Pacific Division teams. So is the fact that these teams are almost out of time. Minnesota has to make up a four-point gap in only 15 games.
The Wild have surged with a 12-4-2 record since the All-Star Break. It’s been exciting, with the President’s Day thriller against the Vancouver Canucks and this week’s overtime goalie pull against Nashville being highlights. But where has it gotten them?
If things stand where they are today: Sadness. HockeyViz’ Micah Blake McCurdy used to post his “Sadness” rankings, which were the odds a team would miss the playoffs and pick outside the top five in the NHL Draft.
Here’s an example from January of last season:
The jockeying for a top-5 draft pick might be a bit less interesting now since lottery rules changes have removed the third overall pick and limited how far lottery winners could move up. Unfortunately, the concept still applies to the Minnesota Wild.
Congratulations to the State of Hockey: The Wild now has the most points of any team outside of the playoffs. No matter what Minnesota does, all the Golden Knights, Kings, and Predators (who have 80 points) have to do is pretty much keep pace with the Wild to shut them out of a playoff spot. The Wild do not control their destiny, even with two head-to-head matchups with Vegas and LA.
Evolving-Hockey’s projections as of March 15 have Minnesota finishing around 91 points, which would secure them the 16th-best draft lottery odds. At that point, they could win the Draft Lottery outright (they’d have 1.1% odds) and only be able to move up 10 spots to the sixth overall pick — outside the top five. Sadness.
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