1 potential surprise star in each division
Paul Goldschmidt? No. Nolan Arenado? No. Cody Bellinger or Dansby Swanson or Christian Yelich or Corbin Burnes? No. The answer is actually William Contreras, who led the division with 5.4 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs.
The point is: The top players in any given year just aren’t always who you’d expect. It’s easy to see an Adley Rutschman or Julio Rodríguez or Corbin Carroll as the next top dog in their divisions. But let’s try to find some more under-the-radar candidates who could take MLB by storm in 2024.
Here’s one dark horse who could emerge as the top player in every division.
AL East: Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
Top player in 2023: Aaron Judge (5.3 WAR)
Let’s start with this snapshot of Volpe’s rookie season: 21 home runs, 24 stolen bases, a Gold Glove Award at shortstop. If you just saw that, you’d think the Yankees already had one of the league’s top rising stars on their hands. But really, Volpe has massive untapped potential after Year 1. There’s room for a huge leap offensively — Volpe batted only .209 with a .666 OPS and 81 OPS+ in his big league debut. And given that he’s only 22, was a top prospect
entering the big leagues and flashed his exciting tools as a rookie, that huge leap isn’t hard to believe for Volpe in Year 2. With his power-speed combo and Gold Glove ability at a premium position, the Yankees shortstop could quickly become one of the best players in a stacked division.
Other candidates: Randy Arozarena (Rays), Triston Casas (Red Sox), Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox), Jackson Holliday (Orioles
Entering his age-23 season, Greene already has an impressive all-around game at one of the game’s most valuable positions in center field, with four plus
tools in his contact hitting, power, speed and glove. He’s already made an impressive leap at the plate from his rookie season in 2022 to his sophomore season in 2023, improving from a 97 OPS+ to a 117 OPS+. And he has great underlying numbers, ranking in the top quarter of MLB in essentially all of Statcast’s quality-of-contact metrics in 2023 (expected batting average and slugging percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and launch angle
sweet-spot rate). Greene — who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow and should be ready for Opening Day — just needs to put together a full, healthy season, and he should be a star for Detroit.
Other candidates: Royce Lewis (Twins), Cole Ragans (Royals), Tarik Skubal (Tigers), Eloy Jiménez (White Sox)
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