Phillies Pitching Duo Leads Team’s WAR Projections
There is a reason the Philadelphia Phillies want to extend pitcher Zack Wheeler past this season, and a reason why they signed pitcher Aaron Nola to a long-term deal in free agency.
WAR, or wins above replacement, says it all.
The two Phillies hurlers have the highest projected WARs of any Phillies players going into next season — and that includes superstar first baseman Bryce Harper.
The projects are based on Streamer projections at FanGraphs and were recently compiled by MLB.com to determine which player from each team had the highest-projected WAR going into the season.
Wheeler has the highest projected WAR of any Phillies player at 4.7. In fact, his WAR is second among all pitchers, behind on Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (4.9).
Wheeler is in the final year of his contract and is coming off another exceptional season in which he went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts. He struck out 212 and walked 39. It was his third straight season with at least 12 wins for the Phillies.
Wheeler has similar projections for 2024 — a 13-10 record with a 3.54 ERA, with more than nine strikeouts per nine innings and a little more than two walks per nine innings.
Nola signed a seven-year, $172 million deal in free agency to keep their home-grown starter in-house for a long time. He went 12-9 in 2023 with a 4.46 ERA in 32 starts. He struck out 202 and walked 45.
Nola’s projected WAR isn’t far behind Wheeler at 4.2. It’s the fourth-highest projection of any pitcher, with Strider, Wheeler and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman in front of him. FanGraphs projects Nola with a 13-10 record and a 3.81 ERA with more than nine strikeouts per nine innings.
