3 Ways The Green Bay Packers Can Upset The San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers ranked second in the NFL in total offense (398.4) and third in scoring offense (28.9) this season.
The 49ers were third in scoring defense (17.5) and eighth in total defense (303.9).
In other words, they have very few flaws.
There is a path, though, for the Green Bay Packers (10-8) — a 10.0-point underdog — to stun the 49ers (12-5) in their NFC divisional playoff game Saturday night.
1. Travel by air, not land
There aren’t many weaknesses on San Francisco’s defense.
The 49ers ranked third in rushing yards allowed (89.7) and seventh in sacks (48.0).
One area where San Francisco didn’t dominate, though, was passing defense, where it ranked 12th allowing 214.2 yards per game. On the flip side, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is averaging 269.1 passing yards in his last nine games.
Green Bay, on the other hand, can hurt teams from several spots in the passing game. The Packers have six players with at least 30 receptions and nine between 200 and 800 receiving yards.
This could be a game where the Packers try attacking the middle of the field with players like tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, or wideouts Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed.
“I’ve definitely been part of teams where we’ve tried to force feed a guy the ball and sometimes that does not work out in your favor,” Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur said. “Other times it does. I think Jordan would tell you, he’s got confidence in whoever’s out there. All those guys have proven to make plays for us throughout the course of the season.”
2. New sheriff in town
Former Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers always held a grudge against the 49ers, the team he idolized as a boy.
San Francisco, which had the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, passed on Rodgers. That led to a free fall that saw Rodgers plummet to No. 24 overall.
Rodgers was asked afterwards about his disappointment level after the 49ers bypassed him.
“Not as disappointed as the 49ers will be that they didn’t draft me,” he said.
Hardly.
Rodgers faced the 49ers four times in the postseason during his time in Green Bay, and was pedestrian each game as the Packers went 0-4 in those contests. Rodgers was thoroughly outplayed by San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick in 2012 and 2013 defeats, was dreadful in the 2019 NFC Championship Game played in San Francisco, and could never get Green Bay’s offense going during a 13-10 home loss in the 2021 divisional playoffs.
This year, the Packers enter the divisional round with the NFL’s hottest quarterback in Jordan Love.
During the Packers’ stunning 48-32 win over second-seeded Dallas in an NFC wild card game Sunday, Love completed 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also finished with a 157.2 passer rating — just 1.1 away from a perfect mark.
In Love’s last nine games, he’s thrown a remarkable 21 touchdowns and just one interception. Love has completed 70.7% of his passes in that stretch, thrown for 2,422 yards and has a 116.6 passer rating.
Now, Love takes aim at a San Francisco team Rodgers never could conquer in the postseason.
“Unbelievable just how much he’s grown,” Packers left guard Jon Runyan said of Love. “Everybody sees it. I think we’ve won eight of the last 11 games and he’s really just starting to flourish. He feels comfortable. This is his offense. His team. We’re just going to ride him and he’s going to take us where this team can go. Just keep going, keep pushing.”
3. Make Purdy move
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is one the NFL’s great underdog stories.
Purdy was the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow during the 2022 NFC Championship Game that required significant offseason surgery.
Purdy responded, though, with a brilliant 2023 campaign in which he threw 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and led the NFL in passer rating (113.0) among quarterbacks that threw at least 75 passes.
Purdy had three games, though, where he threw two interceptions, or more. And the common theme was all three teams made Purdy uncomfortable.
Baltimore had nine quarterback hits on Purdy and intercepted him four times during a 33-19 win last month. Cincinnati had two interceptions of Purdy and hit him seven times during a Week 8 win in San Francisco. And Minnesota — which led the NFL in blitz percentage — sent extra rushers at Purdy throughout their Week 7 matchup and intercepted him twice.
When given time and a clean pocket, Purdy and his terrific group of pass catchers will shred defenses. Purdy isn’t an elite athlete, though, and when he’s forced off his spot, he often struggles.
The Packers tied for 16th in the NFL in sacks (45.0). The more important category in this game, though, might be pressures.
If the Packers can force Purdy to try making plays from outside the pocket, they’ll have a chance to slow the 49ers’ high-powered offense.
Will Joe Barry’s unit be up to the task?
“You gotta beat the best to be the best,” Packers safety Darnell Savage said of facing the 49ers. “That’s how it goes. We gotta continue to get better this week. Get our bodies back right and be ready to go out there and perform.”
