The Draymond Green plus-minus discrepancy and how it underscores his continuing importance to the Warriors
The Warriors lost to the Lakers — in huge part due to Green’s time on the bench.
It was an epic double-overtime showdown between the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers — one the Lakers edged out courtesy of LeBron James’ clutch free throws. James (36-20-12 on 57.1% on twos, 50% on threes on a 2-of-4 clip, and a perfect 6-of-6 at the line — 65.1% True Shooting) had another titanic clash with his eternal rival in Steph Curry (46-3-7 on 57.1% on twos, 40.9% on threes, and 3-of-3 at the line — 61.6% True Shooting), who made clutch shots in overtime, albeit not enough to get the Warriors over the hump.
But the one person who arguably made the difference between what could’ve been a Warriors win and what turned out to be the second one-point loss in as many games didn’t even reach 10 points.
Take this for data: The Warriors outscored the Lakers by a whopping 31 points during Draymond Green’s 45 minutes and 42 seconds on the floor. When he was on the bench, the Warriors got outscored by the Lakers by an equally whopping 32 points in a one-point loss.
Single-game plus-minus has a lot of noise behind it, which typically makes it an unreliable measurement by its lonesome. But in the aggregate, it can be indicative of true impact and value. We don’t need to go into a long anecdote about Green’s value to the team and how important it is that he stays on the floor and keeps himself available at all times — his body of work speaks for itself.
In the four games since returning from a lengthy suspension and ramp-up period — from the disastrous game against a hobbled Memphis Grizzlies squad up to this recent heartbreaker of a loss to the Lakers — the Warriors have outscored their opponents by a cumulative 65 points in 123 minutes with Green on the floor.
It’s an emerging trend that isn’t really much of a surprise if you’re truly attuned to the Warriors and how they work. Their offense is built around the otherworldly talents of Curry, but it runs with nary a hitch with Green as decision maker and floor director — all while being the central hub and lifeline of their defense.
It was telling that the Warriors’ first offensive possession against the Lakers was a set drawn up for Green — one that was built to capitalize on how the Lakers typically choose to guard him in half-court situations:
A Green “keep” action — a fake handoff to Curry, one that he’s done with his partner-in-crime a bunch of times — is aided by a Klay Thompson screen in the paint. This is to take advantage of the fact that Anthony Davis is sagging off of Green, with D’Angelo Russell not willing to detach himself from Thompson. The result: Green goes all the way to the rim without Davis threatening to block his shot.
“Keeper” specials for Green are nothing new — but he’s also the only one on the roster with both the wherewithal and timing to properly execute them:
The operative words with Green on offense: timeliness and awareness. That goes for the keep actions above and also knowing when to set Curry loose in transition by picking at a specific weak link at a given moment.
Step-up screens in transition, for example, to take advantage of an unaware defense who fails to take away Curry’s space:
It also goes for possessions where one key aspect of Curry’s greatness is unleashed, allowing it to blossom into its full potential: his off-ball skills.
Inverting the floor with Green as the decision maker at the top of the three-point line allows him to find Curry on a variety of actions within the same 5-out alignment. Whenever Curry comes off a pindown/pin-in screen when lifting from the corner, Green may be the only one on the team who can perfectly place the ball in Curry’s shooting pocket:
When the same 5-out alignment materializes down the line, Green connects with Curry once again — but on a different kind of play type altogether, with a higher degree of difficulty but with execution built through a decade of playing together:
It doesn’t have to be on a conventional 5-out setup where Green shows his ability to unlock Curry’s full off-ball potency. On possessions where Davis is sagging off of Green and Curry is lurking nearby, the Warriors have been experts at parking Green in the corner — with Curry nearby on the wing — to execute beautiful hand-off concepts such as this one:
