Brighton-09/19/2023 Bruins GM Don Sweeney speaks to the media.The Boston Bruins held press conferences at the Warrior Ice Arena at the start of their training camp there. John Tlumacki/Globe Staff (sports)
Bruins forcing Don Sweeney to sell at trade deadline
Commentary: Boston has slim hopes to make the playoffs, so the best option for the team is to plan for the future.
BOSTON — Two weeks ago, team president Cam Neely said the Boston Bruins would view the approaching trade deadline down two paths. Based on how they played from then until March 7, the team would make plans to be buyers or plans to be sellers, then decide which was the more prudent path.
There’s only one path now. After blowout losses to the Sabres and Jets, there’s no argument that the Bruins should invest in the present team.
General manager Don Sweeney could be on the hot seat himself, which makes standing pat unlikely. He has to determine how best to help the franchise and maybe how best to help himself, and more and more, that’s looking like the Bruins should be thinking long-term.
When they left the ice after Thursday’s loss, the Bruins had 56 points, good for the Eastern Conference’s second wild card – the last playoff qualifier. That is misleading, because they’ve played at least two more games than everyone they’re competing with. All it takes is one of the five teams right behind them to pick up a couple of points in their games in hand, and the Bruins would be on the outside looking in.
The Athletic uses a computer simulator to determine odds of making the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. They have the Bruins’ postseason chances at just 37 percent.
That’s hard to argue with. This is a team that needs to stack up wins, but they’ve had one winning streak of four games all season.
Making matters worse, the Bruins, who are 9-14-3 on the road, play 14 of their final 22 games in March and April away from Boston.
Over the last eight seasons, not counting the COVID season of 2019-20, the average point total for the last playoff team in the Eastern Conference has been 95.9. Nobody has gotten in with fewer than 91 over that stretch.
To this point, the Bruins have 56 points in 53 games, which is a .528 points percentage. To get to 91 points, they’d have to play at .603. To get to 96, they’d have to play at .689. Not impossible for a really good team, but the Bruins haven’t been close to being a really good team.
The NHL 4 Nations Face-Off complicates things a little. The Bruins could benefit from the reset that will come from 10 days off. But the mini-showcase tournament could give general managers a big window to start making moves a little less than a month before the deadline, which means even if the extended practice and recuperation time helps, it might be too late.
If Sweeney had known the shape his team would be in at the start of February, maybe he would have declined the role of Team Canada general manager. By the time the tournament starts in Montreal on Feb. 12, his roster-building role will be over, but will he really be making Bruins moves as the tournament progresses? He might have to.
These pieces simply haven’t fit. There’s not enough scoring. Elias Lindholm has played more like P.J. Axelsson than Patrice Bergeron. He’s a good hockey player, but not the No. 1 center, the Bruins thought they were getting. Nobody has replaced Jake DeBrusk.
The power play has been among the worst in the league and the penalty kill hasn’t been much better. The goaltending has shown good signs at times, but overall has been below average. No area of the game has been good enough to cover for mistakes elsewhere. The dam has had too many holes. There isn’t a player on the roster other than maybe Justin Brazeau who has met or exceeded expectations.
Every player without full no-trade protection — Trent Frederic, Morgan Geekie, Charlie Coyle, even Brad Marchand — could be at risk of being moved.
