The southpaw said he won’t discuss a new deal during the season—so we only have a few days to think about what it might look like, right?

Happy Opening Week, folks. In just a few days, we’ll be talking about actual Red Sox games that count.

One thing that apparently will not be discussed come Thursday, though, is a contract extension for newly-minted Red Sox ace—and the team’s Opening Day starter, as it were—Garrett Crochet beyond the two years of team control he’s currently under. The lefty has stated that he isn’t intending on discussing a new deal with Boston’s front office once the season begins in earnest this Thursday.

Now is that news gonna stop me from thinking about what a contract extension for Crochet could look like beyond 2026? No, it certainly will not.

First and foremost: I don’t necessarily blame the club for letting things play out before putting pen to paper on a new deal for their new lefty, and I certainly don’t blame Crochet for betting on himself. Sure, Crochet’s stuff is nasty—and I’m very excited to see him shove for the Sox—but we’re still talking about a guy who has yet to throw over 146 innings in a year. He’ll easily eclipse that in 2025 if he’s healthy, but health is not a given for any pitcher in this day and age. Establishing a baseline of volume would probably behoove the team before they commit nine figures to him over however-many years.

Of course, though, the price tag will likely jump if Crochet is able to establish the aforementioned baseline of innings. If he’s even able to give the team 180 quality innings…

So if that comes to pass, what kind of money are we talking?

The Athletic recently projected that the Red Sox and Crochet could reach an extension on a deal worth $110 million over the course of five years, with the deal between Atlanta and Spencer Strider’s six-year, $75 million deal signed in October of 2022 used as a benchmark. I think it’s a fair jumping off point, since that was signed after Strider threw 131.2 innings in 2022 to the tune of a 154 ERA+. Strider had also finished his age 23 season with multiple years of team control ahead of him, which would explain the relatively lower AAV on the deal. Crochet can hit free agency after 2026—a $22 million AAV mark is not crazy at this point in time.

I do think that number would have to be ticked up a bit if a deal were to be signed now, though—and it’ll take a pretty steep hike if Crochet has a good 2025 campaign. A deal for $25 million a year right now would put Crochet at the same pay scale as Jack Flaherty (who just signed as a free agent but who doesn’t have as much upside as the lefty does going forward), Robbie Ray (a Cy Young winner who’s dealt with injury setbacks recently), and Sonny Gray (a totally solid veteran).

Are any of those three pitchers perfect comps for Crochet? No, of course not; they’re all considerably older than the 25-going-on-26-year-old, and Crochet would probably want more than that on the open market regardless of what happens in 2025. I think an AAV somewhere just short of the $28.4 million that Blake Snell is making this year on the new contract that he just penned with the Daaaaaaaaaahdjurz a few months ago in free agency would get a deal with Crochet done now.