Games 61-70 wrap: Edmonton Oilers started to rediscover their form, then injuries hit
After presenting as one of the very top teams in the NHL for the three-month period November through January, the Edmonton Oilers hit the skids in February. They spent the better part of March finding their A game, only to hit a new wall with the injuries to superstars Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid in consecutive games. Both occurred on innocuous plays, but the outcomes were significant in the short and possibly intermediate term.
The supporting cast did find a way to win their first game without both of their top guns, which by happenstance was Game #70. The club has now completed seven 10-game segments in 2024-25, so it’s again time to review the most recent trends against the backdrop of the bigger picture.
Season to date by segment
Games 1 –10: 4-5-1, .450 | 22 GF, 35 GA | 343 SF, 261 SA | .930 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-3-1, .650 | 33 GF, 27 GA | 318 SF, 249 SA | .995 PDO
Games 21-30: 8-2-0, .800 | 42 GF, 22 GA | 314 SF, 281 SA | 1.055 PDO
Games 31-40: 7-2-1, .750 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 304 SF, 258 SA | 1.018 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 34 GF, 26 GA | 317 SF, 273 SA | 1.012 PDO
Games 51-60: 3-6-1, .350 | 29 GF, 38 GA | 324 SF, 323 SA | .972 PDO
Games 61-70: 6-3-1, .650 | 34 GF, 29 GA | 315 SF, 252 SA | .993 PDO
In the most recent 10-game segment, the Oilers re-assumed control of the flow of play, logging 56% of the shots on goal outshooting their combined opposition by over 6 shots per game. Their goal share was a little below that at 54%, the shortfall reflected by their PDO (combined shooting and save percentage) which was a little south of the break even point of 1.000.
share of the most dangerous shots? Data collected by video analysis here at the Cult of Hockey suggests it may have been more of the latter. Our data shows that in Games 61-70 the Oilers produced 163 Grade A shots to just 132 for their opponents, a solid 55%. But in the most dangerous, 5-alarm shots, the Oil were below the breakeven mark for the first time in memory. It was as close as could be, 65 for, 66 against for a share of 49.6%, but well off the season-to-date pace which had itself been in the 55% range through 60 games.
At 5v5 the shortfall was slightly greater at 50 for, 55 against for a shade below 48%.
Overall, a welcome bounceback from the preceding 10 games which were awful. And the first 5 games of the most recent set weren’t a whole lot better at 2-3-0, before a 4-0-1 run to close it out and return to some semblance of normalcy.
Indeed, it’s instructive to subdivide Edmonton’s season to date into “half segments” of 5 games.
The green line represents the league average points percentage of .550, which provides a useful over/under line for success in any given set of games. 5 points in 5 games will simply not keep pace with the league as a whole.
The trend line is clear enough, and matches what any Oilers fan might say about the 2024-25 campaign: sluggish start, then an extended period of sustained excellence, followed by a crash to the worst run of the season. The very last data point is a positive sign, but it will be tough to consolidate given the ongoing absences of the squad’s two defining players.
We turn now to individual results, starting as always with the goaltenders. Kris Knoblauch continued his season-long plan of 2 starts for Stu Skinner to every 1 for Calvin Pickard. In the segment just past the duo shared a pair of games, with Pickard getting yanked by his coach against Anaheim while Skinner got pulled by the concussion spotter vs. Winnipeg.
Skinner continued to get the tougher opponents for the most part and thus a higher share of expected goals against and a correspondingly lower expected save percentage, as per sources like Clear Sight Analytics. That said, .879 over any stretch of games is not great.
Defencemen
Evan Bouchard doesn’t get a lot of love in Oil Country these days, but there’s no denying he continues to put up the offensive numbers. In the segment just past he led the d corps in goals, assists, points, shots and shooting percentage, even as exasperating defensive miscues continued to crop up on a too-frequent basis.
Mattias Ekholm also posted excellent boxcars, especially notable given he played just 4 of the 10 games. Top minute-muncher Darnell Nurse raised his game at the offensive end of the sheet while trade deadline prize Jake Walman was generally impressive as Nurse’s new partner. The third pairing had its hands full keeping the puck out of Oilers’ net, especially Ty Emberson who posted a team-worst minus-6 in 7 games before finding himself on the outside looking in.
