MLB winter meetings: Free agency intel from Olney and Passan
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Dallas, signaling when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off after a relatively slow first month.
All eyes will be on the free agency of superstar outfielder Juan Soto, who is likely to sign by the end of the meetings — if not before they even begin. But Soto is far from the only player who could be in for a huge payday as the baseball world gathers in Texas with Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried among the other in-demand free agents looking for their next homes. The trade market also figures to ratchet up in the coming days with Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet highlighting the stars who could be dealt.
When and where will Soto sign? Which teams could land the other players in line for a nine-figure payday and who is looking to make a blockbuster trade?
Here is the latest intel we’re hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rock the meetings — starting with the one name everyone is watching.
When will Juan Soto sign and how will his free agency shape the meetings?
Passan: In a sea of misinformation about Soto’s plans, here is the reality: The end is near. Teams engaged in a third round of Soto bidding this week, and while no deal is imminent, one could materialize before the winter meetings officially begin Monday. Wherever he goes, the contract is expected to set records for length and potentially overall value.
Olney: Soto’s handling of this negotiation is playing out like one of his plate appearances — an extended process, with him thoroughly processing everything that the teams are throwing at him, from their long-term plans to the state of their farm systems to how they intend to allocate payroll in the years ahead. The choices are distinct. He knows from personal experience that Aaron Judge can provide coverage for him, in the lineup and in the clubhouse. The future possibilities for the Mets seem boundless, because of Steve Cohen’s wealth, but they have to construct a pipeline of pitching. Signing with the Red Sox would mean that he’d get to spend the rest of his career playing in a ballpark that augments greatness in left-handed hitters, from Ted Williams to Carl Yastrzemski to David Ortiz to Rafael Devers — although one evaluator notes that Soto could thrive in any ballpark.
Soto has played this brilliantly. He has left doubt in the minds of those making offers because they don’t know what he really wants, in the end, whether it be getting the most money, playing in New York or some other unknown variable. Whatever Soto decides, his signing will set off a flurry of activity as the losing bidders scurry to find consolation prizes.
Passan: Much of the high-end free agent market has been frozen on account of Soto, and once he chooses a team, those who didn’t get him will pivot to backup plans. With that, a deluge of deals will make the remainder of December one of the busiest baseball-transaction months in recent memory. How many of them come during the meetings could depend on the Soto runners-up’s desire to immediately counteract their disappointment.
Olney: It’s a perfect storm of bidding, and through the use of deferrals, it does not seem out of the realm of possibility that the broad strokes of his deal could be something in the range of $750 million over 15 years.
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