Alex Bregman Reportedly Has Six-Year Offer From Club Other Than Astros
February starts tomorrow but Alex Bregman is still unsigned. Throughout the winter, he has reportedly been sitting on a six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that he also has a “lucrative” six-year offer, with an opt-out after the first year, from another club “that may not be not be high on his list.” Heyman mentions the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox as clubs that have been in the mix. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently appeared on Area 45 with Bijani and Creighton and suggested the Blue Jays might have a six-year offer out to Bregman.
The twists and turns of the Bregman saga have been well documented to this point. Going back to the Astros seemed like a strong possibility at the start of the winter and there has clearly been mutual interest in a reunion but a gap in talks when it comes to the financials, with Bregman reportedly looking to get something close to $200MM.
The $156MM offer is close-ish to that but Heyman and Nightengale both relay that Bregman viewed that as a paycut. That offer would come with an average annual value of $26MM. Bregman signed an extension with the Astros back in March of 2019, a five-year, $100MM pact. That was only a $20MM AAV but it was backloaded. Bregman got a $10MM signing bonus and then had a salary of $11MM in the first three years of that deal, followed by salaries of $28.5MM in the last two. Though the recent offer from Houston would have come with an AAV bump compared that entire contract, it appears the immediate downgrade in salary wasn’t satisfactory.
That led to Bregman getting interest from other clubs and the Astros pivoting to other players. They acquired Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal and then signed Christian Walker. Those two, along with Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve, seemed to fill the Houston infield and block Bregman’s path back to the club. More recently, reports have emerged that suggested the door is actually open a crack. The club apparently has some willingness to re-sign Bregman, move Paredes to second and Altuve to left field.
That’s a bit of an awkward fit, but the same could be said of Bregman’s other possible landing spots. The Red Sox have Rafael Devers at third and prospects like Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer charging towards the second base opening. Moving Devers over to first base makes some sense on account of his poor defense, but he seems reluctant to make that move and Boston has Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a likely designated hitter. The Tigers would be blocking Jace Jung, a top prospect who has already cracked the majors, from regular playing time. The Cubs would similarly be blocking Matt Shaw. The Jays would be blocking a group of potential third baseman that includes Orelvis Martínez, Addison Barger and Ernie Clement.
Financially, the clubs are in different positions, per figures from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The Tigers project to have an Opening Day payroll of $118MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $98MM figure but they were in the $120-140MM range in the two prior years. Signing Bregman would push them past that but could be justified after last year’s surprise playoff push. As of last week, their talks with Bregman were reportedly at a standstill.
The Cubs have a competitive balance tax number of $207MM and the Red Sox $210MM. This year’s base tax threshold is $241MM, meaning both clubs are more than $30MM away from that line. They have both paid the tax in recent years, so getting to the line or even crossing it can’t be explicitly ruled out, though both clubs reportedly prefer the idea of signing Bregman to a short-term deal.
The Jays, meanwhile, are well above the rest in this group. They project for a $250MM payroll and $273MM CBT number, both of which would be franchise records by significant margins. Last year’s $225MM Opening Day payroll was a new record at the time. They went narrowly over the CBT line in 2023 and were projected to do so again last year, before their disappointing season led to a trade deadline selloff that allowed them to limbo underneath. Though they are in uncharted waters, they reportedly still have wiggle room after agreeing to a deal with Max Scherzer.
The Cubs were the only one of the non-Houston clubs mentioned here to pay the tax in 2024, meaning they would be subject to the stiffest penalties for signing Bregman. Since he rejected a qualifying offer, any club apart from Houston that signs him would be subject to draft pick forfeiture. As a tax payor, the Cubs would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM from next year’s international bonus pool space. The Jays and Red Sox, who didn’t pay the tax and aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, would only forfeit $500K of pool space and their second-highest pick. The Jays already surrendered a pick to sign Anthony Santander, so they would actually surrender their third-highest pick if they also signed Bregman. The Tigers, as a revenue-sharing recipient, would give up their third-best pick. Houston stands to receive compensation if Bregman signs elsewhere, though since they paid the tax last year, they would only receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. Re-signing Bregman would take that potential compensation away.
