Big name Anaheim goalie is NOT the answer for Edmonton Oilers, goalie expert says, but Binnington is
This in from former NHL goalie Steve Valliquette, now a top MSG TV analyst covering the New York Rangers, his take that while Jordan Binnington would be an excellent acquisition for the Edmonton Oilers, goalie John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks would not.
With his advanced analytics, Valliquette is able to look at the kind of Grade A shots a team gives up and compare that to how each NHL goalie would do if he faced that same kind of shot pattern. When he looked at the Edmonton Oilers, he found that Team Canada star Binnington would have saved 17 more goals this year than Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard if Binnington has been in the Edmonton nets.
But that’s not the case with Gibson.
“Now, another goalie that could be rumoured to go there is John Gibson,” Valliquette said on the Kyper & Bourne show. “So when I put him into that model, he’d only be a plus three (goals). And part of that reason and the big difference is, is that Bennington is really good off the rush. He’s got a very good rush save percentage for the last five years. He’s been in the top five. He’s always been very top save percentage, reading off rush, odd mans, etc.’
Edmonton was the fifth best team in stopping rush chances last year, Valliquette said, which is a big reason the Oilers went to the Stanley Cup final. But this year they’re 15th in giving up odd man chances against.
“And if you watch Edmonton play for a few nights, you can see that Stu’s just not even moving close to as well as he was last year. Never been a huge Skinner fan off the rush, movement-wise. But right now he’s struggling in there moving side to side.”
Asked if he would push for Edmonton to acquire Binnington, Valliquette said, “I would. … No question about it. I would because you’ve got two new killer weapons there in Draisaitl and McDavid and enough to win. You need something to push you over the line.”
My take
1. The average save percentage of NHL goalie’s in 2024-25 is .901. Stuart Skinner is at .897 and Calvin Pickard at .896.
Skinner is capable of getting hot for weeks at a time, while Pickard can throw solid games at the opposition. But they’re a below average tandem on a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. I doubt the Oilers can win the Cup with those two in net. It’s possible they could — and I’ll be rooting for them like crazy to succeed if they’re tasked with the job — but I agree with Valliquette that the Oilers would do well to add another goalie, teaming him up with Stu Skinner, and seeing how that goes.
2. Of course this is easier said than done. If Evander Kane’s cap slot can’t be used, Edmonton lacks the cap space to acquire a goalie like Binnington, who makes $6 million a year, with two more years to run on the deal. Gibson makes $6.4 million a year, with two more years as well.
3. Fact is that Binnington might not be available, nor might any goalie who is better than Skinner or Pickard. We don’t know the market. Oilers GM Stan Bowman does.
4. Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now, the ultimate Oiler insider, has said he doesn’t foresee the Oilers trading for a goalie at the deadline. Stauffer knows what management is thinking so I have no reason to doubt this is how things will play out.
But dare to dream.
Maybe something will shake loose at the last minute. It doesn’t sound like Gibson — as much as he’s been rumoured to be coming to the Oilers — makes sense though.
