To make some NCAA Tournament noise, Kentucky basketball must improve in these three areas By John Clay
As the old saying goes, you’re either getting better or you’re getting worse. With Kentucky opening play in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Friday versus Troy in Milwaukee in a first-round game of the Midwest Regional, here are three areas where the Cats need to show some improvement
1. Protecting the basketball The metrics say Kentucky turns the ball over on 15.2% of its possessions. That ranks 44th nationally. Not too shabby, right? Unfortunately, that stat doesn’t tell the whole story.
Mark Pope’s club is 2-6 this season when it turns the ball over 14 or more times in a game. Four of those losses came in games that arguably the Cats should not have lost — at Georgia (14 turnovers), at Vanderbilt (17), to Arkansas (14) and at Texas (15). Many have been untimely turnovers.
Kentucky blew a late lead at Texas down the stretch thanks in part to a pair of turnovers, including a backcourt giveaway with 45.4 seconds left. The Cats blew a 10-point lead with 1:26 left against Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament thanks to three turnovers in the final 33.8 seconds. Thankfully, Otega Oweh’s game-winning basket with less than a second left saved UK’s bacon.
To be sure, injuries to a pair of ball-handlers hasn’t helped. Jaxson Robinson (wrist) is out for the season having played 12 minutes since Feb. 8. Lamont Butler (shoulder) missed the 99-70 wipeout against Alabama in the SEC Tournament in which the Cats turned the ball over 16 times. Those led to 29 Crimson Tide points.
Consider this: In last year’s NCAA Tournament, teams that turned the ball over 14 or more times went 8-15. Teams that turned the ball over less than 14 times were 59-52.
2. Take more 3-point shots Pope’s preseason wish list included his Cats taking at least 30 shots per game beyond the 3-point arc. Preferably, Pope wanted the average to be 35. Kentucky ended up averaging 25.7 attempts from 3-point land. And even that figure has fallen, of late.
For example, Kentucky was just 5-for-19 shooting from long distance in the SEC Tournament loss to Alabama. It was 8-for-24 in the win over Oklahoma and 11-for-20 in the regular-season finale at Missouri. But it was just 4-for-17 in the loss to then-No.
1 Auburn at Rupp Arena. All total, Kentucky was 18-5 when it attempted at least 24 shots from downtown. It was 4-6 when it took less than 24 shots from 3-point range. And four of those five losses occurred away from Rupp Arena. Consider this: The Cats are 15-3 in games in which they made 10 or more 3s. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, teams that made 10 or more 3s were 24-14. Teams that made less than 10 of their 3-point shots were 43-53.
3. Play better defense No doubt Kentucky is a better defensive team than earlier in the season. And a much better defensive team than the one that lost to Ole Miss 98-84 in Oxford on Feb. 4. After that game, UK was 112th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Now, the Cats enter NCAA Tournament play ranked 56th.
Still, three of Kentucky’s last five opponents scored at least 90 points. In the SEC Tournament, Alabama came within one point of the century mark. Six of UK’s last seven opponents averaged at least 1.0 points per possession. Alabama averaged 1.2 in Tuscaloosa. Auburn averaged 1.275 at Rupp. Even in this age of high-scoring offenses, defense wins championships. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, champion Connecticut held all six opponents below 45% shooting from the field. The six went 30-for-110 from 3-point range for 27.3%. Five of the six averaged less than a point per possession. (Alabama was the exception at 1.139.) Not one of the six scored more than 72 points on the Huskies. Meanwhile, Kentucky is 16-4 this season when it has held an opponent under 45% shooting from the floor; 6-7 when it has not. The Cats were 7-3 in SEC games in which they held the opponent below 45%. That number is a good one to watch.
