One reason to feel confident and one reason to worry about Falcons – Eagles
The Eagles figure to make mistakes, but it’s fair to wonder if Atlanta will be able to capitalize.
If you’re feeling confident about a win here, please lend me some of your swagger. I could really use it before Monday night.
For the rest of us and in lieu of that confidence donation, let’s talk about the one major reason to feel confident the Atlanta Falcons can pull off an upset over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the largest of a small constellation of reasons to think this one’s going to be a rough evening.
Feel confident that the Eagles are likely to make game-changing mistakes
I mentioned this in my preview the other day, but the one legitimate weakness for this Eagles team has to be the turnovers. Last year they were 23rd in the NFL in that particular statistic, committing 10 more turnovers than they themselves recovered, and they’re already at a 3:1 rate after the first week of the season.
Jalen Hurts is a major culprit—he’s a talented player, but prone to errors that keep him out of the NFL’s elite stratosphere—and the Falcons are theoretically in a great position to take advantage of that. Last week, Arthur Smith and Justin Fields largely focused on avoiding major mistakes and succeeded, but with a more established and open gameplan, the Eagles won’t be shy about business as usual against a Falcons secondary loaded with playmakers. That should translate to some risky throws, and if the pass rush shows up, there may be opportunities to cause fumbles as well.
Given the degree of difficulty in this matchup, that’s the most realistic path to victory for Atlanta, and the opportunities to make a momentum-shifting big play should be there for the Falcons defense.
Worry that the offense will remain broken
All the turnovers in the world won’t matter if the Falcons can’t move the ball. Bijan Robinson aside, the Falcons offense combined for 133 yards on the ground and through the air. Bijan should once again be the focal point of this offense, but even if he is and he gets going in a way he couldn’t on the ground against Pittsburgh, the Falcons are going to have to pass at a semi-credible level to win this game.
I’m worried they won’t be able to do it, given the predictable game plan we saw against the Steelers and the limitations Kirk Cousins appears to be working with. If Cousins isn’t confident enough in his Achilles yet—or worse, if he’s not actually fully healthy—he’ll be the one offering up
turnover-worthy throws and drive-killing misses. If Zac Robinson can’t figure out a less obvious way to both protect Cousins from his limitations and keep a very capable Eagles pass rush off of him, chances are good the offense will once again stutter and stagger its way down the field.
Even if the defense is on point, it’s difficult to imagine the Falcons holding the Eagles to fewer than 20 points. If the Falcons look anything like they did a week ago, it’s hard to imagine them scoring 20 points. The offense is my major worry, and for good reason.
